A month on from the 2019 federal election, voting data shows exactly how the NSW seat of Warringah shunned incumbent Liberal MP Tony Abbott in favour of independent Zali Steggall.
Folks, it was an absolute pasting.
As the ABC‘s elections guru Antony Green pointed out this afternoon, the latest figures from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) show a swing against the former prime minister that violently bucked nationwide trends toward the Coalition. Take it away, Antony:
2PP figure out for Warringah, Liberal 52.1%, Labor 47.9%, swing to Labor of 9%. 76% of preferences from Independents and minor parties flowed to Labor. Given Steggall had an open how-to-vote, that's quite a rejection of former Liberal MP Tony Abbott. #ausvotes— Antony Green (@AntonyGreenABC) June 12, 2019
Yep. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor experienced a swing of +9%, way above the national average swing of +0.92% to the Coalition. That swing came despite ALP candidate Dean Harris experiencing a primary vote swing of -8.2%, meaning preference flows from independent candidates not named Zali Steggall were strong enough to largely counteract Labor’s poor showing.
In short, it appears that if voters didn’t put Abbott first, they were liable to put him dead bloody last, with a wealth of independents between their first and final preferences. Steggall just happened to be the candidate who presented the most compelling message to the electorate’s voters, even if that message was largely “not this guy again.”
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