The date “September 19th” is currently circled in red on every member of the Coalition‘s calendars.
That’s the date that voters in the seat of Canning – an electorate in Western Australia that covers an outer metropolitan region south of Perth – head to the polling booths in a by-election that covers the void left by the untimely passing of incumbent Liberal member Don Randall, who died of a suspected heart attack on the 21st of July.
But more importantly, it now looms as a pivotal moment in the leadership of Prime Minister Tony Abbott and his associated leadership team.
And it’s a moment that’s making minor Coalition MPs extremely nervous.
Randall was a trusted servant of the seat of Canning, which has largely existed as a safe Liberal seat. Like many other career politicians, his constituents have historically preferred stable representation, rather than any chopping and changing.
And more to the point, they very much like being on the winning side, if history is anything to go by.
The seat has been a Liberal stronghold traditionally – Randall had held the seat for 14 years, spanning back to 2001. But the only major deviation from this largely blue seat came during the period spanning 1983 until 1996: The exact start and end dates of the Hawke/Keating years.
The passing of Randall leaves the seat vacant, and subject to a open by-election (like a regular election, but just for the one electorate). And this is where the Government is starting to feel some nerves.
You see, the election now looms as something of a litmus test for the Coalition as to how a potential Federal Election lead by Abbott as PM might pan out. Where Randall achieved a 12% election victory in 2013, now the polls are suggesting the swing against the Government in the seat could be as large as 10% – a staggeringly big number for what’s otherwise been considered safe Liberal territory for over a decade.
And so the Coalition is throwing everything it has into the campaign. They’ve selected Andrew Hastie as their candidate – a 32 year old blonde haired, blue eyed Army captain who served in Afghanistan with the SAS and has a particular distaste for “too many PowerPoint presentations.” That’s about as straight-down-the-line 2015 Liberal Party as you could ever hope to achieve. It’s more or less what Tony Abbott sees when he looks at himself in the mirror.
A loss in the by-election would be utterly disastrous for Abbott’s leadership, coming hot on the heels of compounding controversy surrounding the Bronwyn Bishop saga, the issues with Dyson Heydon‘s suspect appointment to a Royal Commission into Unions, and the shady politicking that saw party discussion on Marriage Equality effectively stifled.
Though the Liberal Party isn’t expected to lose the seat of Canning, the goodwill garnered by the late Member Randall will not necessarily automatically flow on to the new candidate. And whilst it’s probable Captain Hastie will pick up the seat, the cushy margin currently enjoyed in the electorate will, in all likelihood, be utterly slashed.
And if that’s the kind of polling result to be seen from one of the safer Liberal seats in the country, the party has every right to feel extremely nervous about the ones where their margin is considerably thinner.
Photo: Stefan Postles via Getty Images.
