It’s still early days yet and there’s a lot of work to be done before the survey closes in early November, but if very preliminary NewsPoll results are anything to go by, then things are starting to look pretty rosy for the Yes Campaign in the on-going Marriage Equality postal vote.
Both SkyNews and The Guardian have published their own poll figures ahead of tomorrow’s first official update from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and all signs are pointing towards the fact that Australians have returned their votes in droves.
The Guardian’s survey, conducted by Newgate Research, found that some 77% of all Australians have already returned their vote, which is a staggering figure. But even more remarkable is the level of youth engagement in the voluntary postal vote. The Guardian’s poll finds that 69% of enrolled 18 – 24 year olds have voted and have successfully returned their forms, which I think we can all agree is… nice.
A further 17% of young people in that category who were polled suggested that they had already filled out their forms and were planning on returning them prior to the November 7th cutoff date. This means the poll could be staring at an 86% participation rate from younger voters, which is a mind-boggling result far beyond even the most optimistic of predictions.
The highest level of participation comes from the 65+ age bracket, which is not surprising; around 80% of people in that category are said to have already returned their vote. But the good news in this regard is that The Guardian’s poll shows the Yes vote holds a resounding lead in almost every age bracket: in the 18 – 34 bracket the lead is 65% in favour to 28% opposed, for 35 – 54 year olds it’s 55% yes, 33% no, and for the 55+ age bracket, yes leads by 54% to 39%.
With voters yet to return forms factored in, that’s around a 66% to 33% win for the Yes campaign.
Those numbers were echoed by SkyNews, who conducted their own poll via ReachTEL. Despite Sky’s traditionally more centre-right approach to things, their poll still points to an overwhelming win for the Yes campaign.
If, as predicted, the ABS announces that a majority of Australians have already returned their votes, it’s expected the No campaign will lose some of its sting; their campaign strategy largely relies on a complacent and apathetic youth vote, which in this case appears to have been mobilised in unprecedented numbers.
So while this is unquestionably good news, there still remains a large amount of work to be done in order to ensure any result of Yes is as overwhelming and undeniable as humanly possible.
If you haven’t returned yr vote yet, hop to it. And if you’re yet to receive a ballot form, request a replacement as soon as humanly possible via this link.
Let’s get it done, legends. x
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