When the number-crunchers at Nate Silver’s delightfully obsessive stat blog FiveThirtyEight aren’t concerning themselves with politics and the economy, they turn their sabermetrics to issues that really matter: entertainment industry awards shows.
Naturally, the site’s taken a stab at the stunningly close Oscars. By “taken a stab”, we actually mean they carefully observed available data on previous awards shows to come to a logical, unbiased conclusion.
That conclusion?
Best Supporting Actress is most likely going to Alicia Vikander for her role in The Danish Girl after she edges Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs; Brie Larson should absolutely walk Best Actress for her turn in Room; and Alejandro G. Iñárritu will take Best Director for The Revenant, which should also nab Best Picture.
Interestingly, the model throws up a three-way challenge for Best Supporting Actor with Ol’ Sly Stallone of Creed, Mark Rylance of Bride Of Spies and Spotlight’s Mark Ruffalo duking it out. Ultimately, the model points at Stallone, the absolute unit he is.
Speaking of units… Leonardo DiCaprio. The Revenant’s unkempt desperado, the Academy’s pincushion, the subject of unadulterated memery is apparently a fkn lock, with author Walt Hickey saying his closest competitor – Steve Jobs’ Michael Fassbender – doesn’t really stand a chance after Leo walked the Golden Globe, SAG Award, the BAFTA Award, the Critic’s Choice Award and the Satellite.
Quite honestly, forget the memery: we’re a little worried if that last one doesn’t come true.
Last year, their predictions came through 5 out of 6 times; their methodology – which again weighed the likelihood of previous award shows to predict Oscars winners – correctly picked J.K Simmons, Patricia Arquette, Julianne Moore, Eddie Redmayne & Birdman.
They missed Iñárritu as Best Director, an oversight they’ve likely flagellated themselves over for the past 12 months.
Yet, redemption – a revenant, even – could be less than a week away.
Source: FiveThirtyEight
Photo: Youtube.
