We’re still 32 days out from the election, and the race between the Coalition under Malcolm Turnbull and Labor under Bill Shorten is pretty tight. The leaders debate last night, as we mentioned, was an insanely boring affair in which both leaders delivered pre-planned essays down the barrel of the camera. Anyone who claims one candidate or another ‘won’ is probably just scraping the barrel for analysis.
But overall, Turnbull should probably be a tad concerned. The Australian has dug back and analysed the past two months of Newspoll results indicates that the Coalition have suffered a slump in polling in key election battlegrounds – which may put them in an election-losing position.
Most people tend to think the Government will probably be returned, but this throws a spanner in the works. In two party preferred terms, the polling analysis suggests that the Coalition has experienced a 6 percent swing against it in Queensland, a 7.3 percent swing in Western Australia and a 3.6 percent swing in New South Wales.
He’s also contending with a lower net satisfaction rating than Tony Abbott had when he was booted. That’s just a flashy figure though, if we’re honest – net satisfaction just proves that everyone hates politicians, and doesn’t actually suggest a whole lot about electability.
Overall, they’re still doing better than they did under Abbott, but the big sugar rush Australia had after losing Tones has absolutely worn off.
“If the swings in each state were repeated in a uniform manner on July 2, Mr Turnbull would lose office just 9½ months after toppling Mr Abbott,” writes The Oz. They probably won’t be repeated in a uniform manner, but it should still give the Coalition some pause. It would mean 18 seats lost to Labor across the three aforementioned states.
But Turnbull is doing his best. He’s focusing all his power into campaigning in marginal seats – having already visited seven in the first three weeks of this long, long campaign.
32 days until the election, and we’re FEELIN’ FINE.
Source: The Australian.
Photo: Getty Images.
