This Time In 2019 Labor Was Ahead In The Polls, So WTF Went Wrong & Will It Happen Again In 2022?


The 2022 federal election is shaping up to be one of the tightest in living memory. With one week until election day on May 21, Labor has slightly snuck ahead of The Coalition in the polls. So should we trust these polls after they borked it last time? What is the Labor Party doing to avoid repeating its catastrophic result in 2019? Let’s chat about it.

Picture the scene. It’s election day back in 2019. Bill Shorten‘s ahead in the polls and this new bloke nobody had ever heard of called Scott Morrison is the underdog. Actually, you had heard of him ‘cos he brought a lump of coal into parliament that one time. You’ve just tuned in to watch the vote-counting broadcast on telly. Out of nowhere, shock horror. Morrison snatches the win. Fkn ‘scuse me?

Much has already been written about why Labor cooked it in 2019, so we’ll cut straight to the point. For every reason we’re about to list, we’ll also list a way Labor has tried to counteract it for the 2022 election.

#1. Bill Shorten wasn’t likeable. Fix? Anthony Albanese.

Sadly for former Labor leader Bill Shorten, he didn’t pass the pub test (a symbolic test that basically asks “could you tolerate having a drink in a pub with this person?”).

Data from 2019 suggested that he was the most unpopular Labor leader in 30 years as per the Canberra Times. Yeeeesh!

This time around, Labor has appointed Anthony Albanese as their leader. Even conservative media channel Sky News has said he’s a “nice guy”.

Labor fingers will be crossed he can pass the pub test where Shorten couldn’t. Oh, and he can DJ?!? Forget the pub test. We’re movin’ up to the CLUB test.

#2. Boomers hated Labor. Fix? Create lots of pro-boomer policies.

In 2019, Labor wanted to create room in the budget for things like healthcare, education and renewable energy. To do this, it planned to remove some of the cash the government gave investors for simply owning investments ie: negative gearing and franking credits.

Australia’s wealthy folk (lookin’ at you, boomers) hated this idea and Morrison was able to use his political cunning to strike fear into their hearts by dubbing it a “seniors tax”.

This time around Labor has done a lot of work creating policies that assist seniors. Things like cutting the cost of medication and improvements to aged care.

Groovy, baby (boomer)!

#3. Scott Morrison seemed shiny and new in 2019. Fix? He seems old and rusty now so literally just do nothing and let him fuck it up for himself.

Back in 2019, the everyday Aussie wouldn’t have known Scott Morrison would turn out to be the Hawaii holidaying, non-hose-holding, gross-yucky-smirking Prime Minister he turned out to be. However, after three years the voting public may have changed its tune.

The latest The Australian Financial Review-Ipsos poll of 2311 released on Monday showed Labor’s primary vote climbed 1 percentage point to 35 per cent and the Coalition’s had fallen 3 percentage points to 29 per cent.

Albanese also now leads Morrison as preferred PM by 41 per cent to 36 per cent — an increase of 3 percentage points in just two weeks.

Due to the enormous number of fuckups Scott Morrison has been a part of in his time as PM, the Labor Party * could * be able to snag a win by NOT being as chaotic as the Liberals.

A similar policy was adopted by the now-US President Joe Biden during his battle with former President Donald Trump. Americans were so sick of Trump’s antics, all they wanted was a cool, calm leader.

Of course, our situation in Australia isn’t as dire as America’s. Morrison hasn’t incited an insurrection on Parliament house… However, similar logic can be applied.

Morrison is the fire. All Albanese needs to do is at least APPEAR like he’s the hose. Or so the Labor Party’s thinking goes…

Final thots (not a typo) and feelings.

Going into election day, there is still an enormous number of undecided voters.

One poll has suggested the number might be as high as 27%* which is fkn obscene.

As frustrating as it might be for us young folk, this is the main reason Labor has run a less progressive campaign than in previous elections.

Due to Australia’s preferential voting system (explained here), Labor reckons it can win more votes appealing to the 27%* of undecided voters than it could appealing to more progressive voting blocs (such as young people).

This is because the preferences of these voting blocks will likely flow to Labor anyway.

Roll that in with the fact in 2019 Labor got beaten by the Coalition in every age demographic over 34 —  it’s clear why they’re trying to appeal to oldies who might not be as steadfast in who they’re voting for.

And yes, by oldies I mean 34 and over as per a study by the Australian National University.

Source: Cameron & McAllister (2019)

There you have it, folks!

The only thing left to do now is vote on May 21 or even vote early if ya want.

The future is in your hands. BUT as we’ve learned today, it’s also in the hands of the (approximately) 27% of undecided voters.

So if you know someone who’s on the fence about who they’re voting for this election, pull them aside for a cuppa tea and a chat. Sometimes it’s the little things that make the biggest difference!

Peace be with you all during this chaotic final week before the election.