The news from the top (BoM) is in: La Niña is frail, she’s weak and she may be on her deathbed. Yes, after nearly three full years of rain and floods, the triple La Niña is breaking down rapidly. I’d cry but tbh I’m sick of having a wet face.
The Binches of Meteorology last updated us on her condition in November and suggested La Niña would finally fuck off by early 2023 — February at the latest, they said. But BOM’s fortnightly climate driver update released on Tuesday showed wind patterns and other climate drivers around Australia had already started to return to normal.
Firstly, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) climate driver which was in a negative phase this year and was partly to blame for our devastating floods has switched to neutral.
Secondly and more surprisingly, the Southern Ocean Polar Vortex has also moved from negative to neutral earlier than expected.
So what does this mean? A relatively normal Australian summer is absolutely on the cards.
This is very welcome news after a freezing, soggy spring across Australia’s east coast. In fact, it was Australia’s second wettest spring on record, Victoria clocked its coldest November temperature ever, and Sydney and Melbourne failed to crack 30C all month. On December 8 and Melbourne’s maximum temperature was just 15C.
But while the prospect of sun this summer is huge, it’s not all good news.
Global predictions suggest an early end to La Niña is possible, according to the ABC, but there’s also a possibility of a rapid transition to El Niño next year. So we might get our first stable summer in years, but it could be followed by a much worse one next year.
El Niño is the opposite to La Niña and brings hotter temperatures and likely bushfires to Australia. The last El Niño was a major factor in Australia’s biggest bushfires on record in 2019/20 and no one wants to see a repeat of that but hey, that’s climate change!
But for now, just try to enjoy the sunshine this summer.
