As always, however, there’s a catch. Modelling by the BoM suggests there’s a 50 per cent chance the soggy señorita will rear her ugly head again towards the end of 2022 — roughly double the normal likelihood.
The 2021-22 #LaNiña event has ended but there is around a 50% chance of a La Niña event forming again during 2022, meaning we have moved to La Niña WATCH. Rainfall outlooks remain wetter than average for Australia. See Climate Driver Update: https://t.co/03yxNgLGE8 pic.twitter.com/ARQsWnVXac
— Bureau of Meteorology Australian Capital Territory (@BOM_ACT) June 21, 2022
But wait, there’s more! Per the Guardian, BoM long-range forecaster Andrew Watkins said the rain won’t be easing, despite La Niña officially leaving the building. In fact, it’s looking like winter will be wetter than average.
“The bureau’s long-range outlook remains wetter than average, consistent with model outlooks from other global forecast centres, reflecting a range of climate drivers including a developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and warmer-than-average waters around Australia,” he said.
“Sea surface temperatures are currently warmer than average for much of the Australian coastline, particularly to the north and west.
“This pattern is likely to increase the chance of above average winter-spring rainfall for Australia.”
Oh, you’ve chucked your wellies away and painted your tootsies, ready to show them off in your little sandals? GOTCHA!
If the fickle mistress of the wet does re-enter the chat later this year, it will be her third consecutive appearance. A tad clingy, if you ask me.
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes climatologist Zoe Gillet told the ABC we’ve only seen La Niña pull a hat trick three times before, with her first one kicking off in 1954 and her latest ending in 2001. Just like the Depop girlies of late, the damp damsel simply wants to return to her Y2K roots.
“A third consecutive La Niña could increase the chances of rain for an already saturated east coast,” she said.