Now that we’re all rolling up our sleeves and gently bullying our friends and family to get vaccinated as soon as possible, we’re all working towards a common goal – reaching a 70% vaccination rate so restrictions can be eased. So how long is it going to take for that percentage of Aussies to get at least one (1) jab? Thankfully the numbers have been crunched for us on that one.

ABC reporter and numbers gremlin Casey Briggs has done all the hard thinky stuff, and by using each state and territory’s vaccination rates from the last seven days has come up with a prediction for when we’ll start hitting 70% coverage of first doses.

Casey looked at the pace of jabs over the last week for every state and territory, and using that same pace he managed to figure out a pretty rough timeline of when each area will hit 70%, and then 80% of people with a first dose. On top of that, he’s collated all of it and figured out when we’ll hit that initial first jab goal as a whole country, too.

Considering some states and territories are tracking a bit slower than others with their vaccination rates, Casey’s 70% predictions range from mid-September right through to early November.

Although it’s predicted that Western Australia won’t hit that initial first jab goal by November 8th (unless the state ramps up its jab pace), Australia as a whole is projected to hit that first target by October 4th, thanks to the way the population is spread across the country.

It’s also important to note that this chart is only projecting first dose rates across the country, and restrictions will only start to be seriously eased once the country starts to hit 70% rates of full vaccination.

Casey said to determine this we just have to add on the time between jabs (which is dependant on the vaccine given and the current intervals between jabs in each state).

If you’re looking at NSW – which will hit that 70% first dose target by September 13 – those second doses will likely be administered up to eight weeks later, which is the current advice for AstraZeneca vaccines. So if my Year 12 math is correct, the state could be looking at hitting that initial fully-vaxxed target by mid-October at the earliest.

The trick is to keep up the pace, so garn get your jab already (and then be smug about it online, as is your right).


All adult Aussies (yep, even if those of us under 40) are currently able to get the safe and effective AstraZeneca vaccine through a GP. Talk to a doctor to see if it’s right for you.

Alternatively, you can triple-check to see if you’re eligible for the Pfizer vaccine here.

The best vaccine is the first one you can get, and that’ll be our ticket out of this mess.

Image: Getty Images / Manuel Velasquez