The Australian House of Representatives is now as little as four votes short of speculatively supporting same-sex marriage, following Labor MP Wayne Swan‘s decision to switch his stance on the issue.
In previous years Swan – the former Federal Treasurer – has voted against reform to the Marriage Act, including in 2012 when it came before Parliament during the Rudd/Gillard years. But in recent times Swan states he has found it harder and harder to reconcile that position against his staunchly held support for economic and social equality.
“I’ve come to the conclusion that, basically, I was wrong.”
With Swan switching his stance, Australian Marriage Equality now estimates that the Lower House of Parliament would have at least 72 MPs who would vote in favour of Same Sex Marriage should it be put to a vote – 4 shy of the 76 majority required to pass legislation. The AME believes the legislation would pass through the Senate with a majority of one.
The caveat to that stat is that it assumes a free vote would be allowed in the Lower House, allowing Liberal MPs a conscience vote on the subject, which party policy currently prevents.
AME National Rodney Croome was confident that in a free vote the odds are in their favour.
“Given a cross-party free vote, the reform has a good chance of passing.”
The chief hurdle to the legislation getting a fair shake in Parliament is Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party upper brass. Abbott had long stated that the issue of a Coalition conscience vote was a matter for a Party Room vote post-election – yet now, approaching the two year mark of the Abbott regime, that has yet to happen.
The likelihood of majority Parliamentary support already existing is also very real, due to numerous Liberal MPs afraid to publicly or privately declare their support on the issue due to fears of rocking the Party boat or adversely affecting their chances at retaining electorate pre-selection – effectively, moving more into a job preservation mode of politics rather than accurately representing the wishes of their constituents.
Because, ultimately, that’s what public service in 2015 is about – maintaining political stances that are as mild as possible to ensure you don’t piss anyone off too much in order to carve out a long and happy career, rather than actually serving the public.
Photo: Lionel Bonaventure via Getty Images.
