Matthew Guy has stepped down as Leader of the Victorian Liberal Opposition after suffering back-to-back crushing defeats to Premier Daniel Andrews. But Saturday’s election delivered a stunningly bad result for the Liberal Party, which picked up its lowest share of the primary vote in 70 years. So what’s going on?
The Liberal primary vote was at 29.7 per cent on Monday morning — its lowest result since 1952, though a few more votes are still to be counted. It’s been dropping steadily in recent years, down from 30.4 per cent at the 2018 election and 36 per cent in 2014.
The Libs only picked up one new seat this time: the increasingly-ritzy coastal seat of Nepean, pretty much only because they had a pseudo-celeb running — former tennis player Sam Groth. They’ve also lost at least one seat from their total 2018 tally of 28. By Monday they had picked up 25 out of 88 seats and were projected to win just 27 at best.
So other than Matthew Gutted being a massive drip, why are things so bad for the Libs right now?
The federal election might’ve had something to do with it. The majority of voters were fed up with Scott Morrison so by association Guy had an uphill battle to claw back voter confidence. And off the back of Morrison’s defeat, political analysts have argued the Liberals are in the midst of an identity crisis.
Who are they in 2022? They’ve had success in the past in fabricating fear around things like refugees and renewable energy and leveraging that fear against their own so-called solutions — “stopping the boats”, etc. But those methods aren’t really flying anymore.
The Libs lost seats to the teal independents at the 2022 federal election because of voters’ climate concerns above all else, according to a study published on Monday. Federal shadow finance minister Jane Hume also said on Sunday the Liberals needed to attract more female voters if they were going to stand a chance at winning a future Victorian state election.
“[There’s] absolutely no doubt that fewer women are voting for the Liberal party than used to,” Hume said.
“Particularly in that cohort of professional women — and that’s something we’ve seen on a federal level and state level — [is] something we need to address.”
So do the Libs now try to win favour with Labor or leftwing voters (unlikely) with stronger climate policy or perhaps putting a woman in charge to show they’re evolving with the times? Or do they double down on conservatism, say fuck renewable energy and hope Australia regresses? They’re kinda damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
One Victorian Liberal candidate reckons the real issue for the party at this state election was that young voters have turned their backs on it.
Asher Judah who ran for the Liberals in the seat of Ashwood said the party was facing a “change-or-die moment” and has urged fellow party members to reform to become relevant to younger voters.
“If we do not change, we will die in Victoria,” Judah told Guardian Australia.
“We will not be able to achieve a majority government and the federal result will become a guide to where we’re heading.
“A lot of the federal results have been mirrored [on this election night] and it’s because the brand is damaged. When the state team does not have a strong brand, doesn’t have that ballast, it gets blown around by federal shocks.”
I think I speak for everyone here when I say we simply love to see it.
