A solid 59% of people who’ve already turned in their same-sex marriage postal survey forms voted for marriage equality, according to the results from a just-released Newspoll survey of 1,583 respondents. That’s in comparison to 38% of respondents who’ve already voted who say they ticked the ‘No’ box.
As it stands, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has received 10.8 million votes in total; all told, that means about 6.3 million Australians have ticked the ‘Yes’ box and returned their survey forms, to 4.1 million who voted the other way.
For a ‘No’ vote to succeed, just about three out of every four remaining eligible forms will need to be marked ‘No’. Despite a notable increase in support for the ‘No’ campaign in recent months, that’ll be a mighty tall order: of those who have not yet voted, 49% say they’re likely to return a ‘Yes’ vote, compared to 37% who say they’ll vote ‘No’. The remaining 14% are still undecided.
As many advocates on either side of the issue predicted, older voters have been more likely to return their forms. 71% of those aged 50-64, and 74% of those aged 65+ have voted. That’s in comparison to 57% of those aged 18-34.
But, if that younger demographic votes according to the predicted trend – which currently stands at 66% support for the ‘Yes’ vote among those 34 and younger – it’ll be even harder for ‘No’ to take the lead.
That, of course, depends on people actually returning their votes. The ABS has reminded anyone with a lost or damaged form to request a replacement before 6pm on this Friday, October 20.
The survey will be closed on November 7.
