Pollsters, Bookies And Chooks: ‘Straya Makes Its Final Election Predictions

Nationwide, rubber bands are snapping around bundles of How To Vote cards. Cardboard sheets lie in school halls, awaiting their contortion into flimsy-as-hell ballot boxes. The snags are in the fridge and the onions have been chopped. It’s the eve of the Federal Election, folks. 

It’s been a long bloody eight weeks of campaigning, but it really does feel like this election will cap off years of turmoil from both Liberal and Labor camps. It’s been a decade-long stretch of back-stabbing (and front-stabbing, actually), and now the nation has been asked to choose which mob of stabbers it prefers. 

Welp, according to the nation’s leading poll-mongers… it’s still far too close to tell, without any serious powers of prognostication. 

The final Fairfax-Ipsos two-party preferred poll pits the Coalition and Labor against each other at 50-50. Taking self-reported second preferences into account, the results give Labor a very slight edge – still, an edge large enough to see Bill Shorten & Co. walk away with a 4.5% swing in their favour since 2013, translating to enough seats to form a solid Labor government. 

ReachTEL saw the inverse results in their final poll, with a 51-49 lead to the Coalition. Likewise, Galaxy have doled out identical figures. Essential Research reported their results differently – just – with the Coalition also nudging out their main competitors 50.5-49.5.

Of course, no stats-minded poll junkie would even consider calling the outcome without checking with the bookies. Even if you ain’t a fan of their business practices, they know their numbers, and most major players are calling the Coalition as dead certs. Most agencies are offering odds of around $1 for Malcolm Turnbull and his posse, while Labor are looking at odds as long as $8. 

FWIW, bookies haven’t ruled out a hung parliament as thoroughly as they’ve binned Labor’s outright chances. Punters who are keen to revel in the “oh shit, what now?” nature of such a scenario will be pleased to know odds are around $5 at the mo’. 

If avid statisticians and cynical bookies are still just too stuffy for you, The Project went ahead and did some last-minute research of their own. Pitting to chooks against eachother in a footrace doesn’t seem like the most reliable way of predicting who’ll be leader come Sunday, but shit – considering all the fore-mentioned back-stabbing, who really knows anymore:

So, according to the more avionically-inclined among us, Shorten is in like Flynn. Still, we’d also be remiss if we didn’t cast our own prediction, either. Without further ado:

Strap yourself in Australia, you’re about to receive some jobs and growth. But uh, yeah, see you at the polls. It’s gonna be a fun one. 
Source: Fairfax / Crikey / Oddschecker.
Photo: Darrian Traynot / Getty.