La Niña will soon be well and truly out of our lives but if you thought that meant we’d finally get some peace, you’d be wrong. As it turns out, her evil twin El Niño will be the latest intruder entering the villa and with him will come fire and hell. Well, maybe that’s dramatic, but you get the picture.
Australia has been caught up in the clutches of La Niña for the better part of three years now with her soppy thottery peaking late last year. As you may have noticed, the wet weather has been giving way to some truly sweltering days as her curse slowly fades.
In fact, according to Sky News’ meteorologist Rob Sharpe, she should officially be declared done and dusted on Valentine’s Day, and March’s weather should be relatively back to normal. Not that I know what normal means anymore.
However, our return to weather that isn’t constantly trying to kill us may be short-lived.
Sharpe said “virtually all global forecast models” suggest there’s a high risk for El Niño for spring and summer in 2023. Sharpe himself said he was “confident” El Niño would return and gave it a roughly 65 per cent chance of being summoned like the devil.
“Of the nine observed double and triple La Niña events since 1900, six have been immediately followed by El Niño years and only three have been followed by neutral years,” he said, per Sky News.
“From looking through the data, I’ve also found a small relationship between an early end to La Niña, like we’re experiencing, and El Nino forming in the following year.
“And it’s not just history suggesting El Niño is on its way but global forecast models are suggesting the same thing.”
Heatwaves, elevated fire dangers, heavy rain, severe thunderstorms and tropical lows can be expected across the country this week. For the latest visit: https://t.co/sOcOaEplZj pic.twitter.com/erS7ljXy46
— Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) February 13, 2023
In case you’re wondering what TF El Niño actually entails, it’s basically the hot version of La Niña.
La Niña increases the chance of above average rainfall, which is why it’s been so wet and muggy in recent years. El Niño, on the other hand, increases temperatures, meaning our next summer will be steamy AF.
“Climate change and El Niño should join forces to produce record-challenging heat,” Sharpe warned. Honestly amazed and impressed Sky News didn’t bleep out the term “climate change”.
“Much of the country will be drier than usual, with an increased fire threat and droughts likely to begin in some areas, but dams should help communities get through until at least the end of next year,” he continued.
“Essentially, it’s time to prepare for a shift from one extreme to the other.”
If that wasn’t alarming enough, it was reported that if we do find ourselves in the sweaty grip of El Niño this year, it would be the hottest and driest El Niño on record.
