The Victorian Treasury is working under the assumption that stay-at-home orders will carry on well past September 13, the date on which Melbourne’s Stage 4 restrictions are slated to end.
Speaking at a parliamentary inquiry this morning, David Martine, the secretary of the Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance, said the department’s economic modelling assumes the state will shift to Stage 3 restrictions by the end of September.
That tracks, as it was always unlikely life would instantly snap back to normalcy after six weeks of Stage 4 lockdowns.
But Martine said the department predicts Stage 2 restrictions will only come into play in the final three months of the year.
“Then for the December quarter we’re assuming stage three migrating into a stage two scenario,” Martine said.
“So we’ve made those sort of assumptions and built them into our forecasts.”
If that modelling proves to be correct, Melbourne residents will only have four valid reasons to leave home until much later this year. That’s a lot of time spent indoors.
At least the department doesn’t think Stage 4 will stick around for any longer than originally planned.
Speaking at the inquiry, Treasurer Tim Pallas said the modelling is based on a heap of assumptions and are subject to change, but maintained the projections are “realistic”.
Premier Daniel Andrews took a somewhat different tack.
When asked about Treasury modelling at a press conference this morning, Andrews said “what is more important and has always guided me more is the ‘actuals’”.
“I would love to be able to confirm for you what we’re going to be facing in October,” he added. “We can’t know that. We can only assume.”
Andrews said future decisions on lockdown restrictions will pivot on the decisions Victorians make today.
“The practical delivery of this strategy really does depend upon literally millions and millions of decisions that are made by individuals and families each and every day,” he said.
Victoria today tallied 21 new deaths due to the virus in the past 24 hours, marking the state’s deadliest day so far in the pandemic.
A further 410 new cases of the virus were recorded.
