Righto folks, it’s the day of reckoning: it’s incredibly likely – though not entirely guaranteed – that Malcolm Turnbull is not going to be Prime Minister by the end of today.
You, a person with a life, job, family and friends, may not be inclined to give a shit about what a bunch of aged student politician sooks are doing in Canberra, and you have every right not to. It’s unedifying.
Here’s a quick primer on what is going on.
Why do the Liberals want to ditch Malcolm Turnbull?
A number of reasons. Turnbull knifed Tony Abbott all the way back in 2015 on the basis that he was failing in the polls and wasn’t connecting with the electorate. Well, if you live by the sword, you die by the sword – Turnbull has ended up in more or less the same place as Abbott was in the polls, and for even longer. By his own logic, he deserves to be axed.
Underneath the horse race stuff, there’s a bigger struggle for the heart of the Liberal Party going on. Ever since it was established by Robert Menzies back in 1944, the Liberal Party has been an uneasy truce between two factions: moderates and conservatives. They don’t like each other, but they tolerate each other on the basis that they both love ratfucking the poor. It’s basically that simple.
Turnbull – an eastern suburbs lawyer toff – represents the moderate faction. Peter Dutton, an ex-Queensland cop who loves to be racist for votes, represents the conservatives. The Dutton faction are mad about Turnbull’s apparent subjugation by liberal elements of Australian society, pointing to things like the passing of same-sex marriage legislation and his mild attempts to prevent our incoming climate apocalypse.
So it’s Turnbull vs. Dutton, then?
We all thought it was, but that is no longer the case. Turnbull has confirmed that if a spill motion proceeds, he won’t be a candidate, and will leave Parliament entirely. Scott Morrison, who is sort of a compromise candidate between the conservatives and the moderates, will stand in as Turnbull’s heir-apparent. Julie Bishop, Turnbull’s deputy and a perennial candidate for leader, is also likely to stand.
Yesterday rumours swirled that hideous politics goblin Tony Abbott – who is in many ways the mastermind behind the current leadership brouhaha – would stand too. He denies that, but we all know Tony is an avatar of pure mischief and cannot be trusted.
Tony Abbott: “I am not a candidate.”
— Sharri Markson (@SharriMarkson) August 23, 2018
Theoretically, anyone can stand if a spill motion goes ahead. It’s likely to be a three-way Dutton / Morrison / Bishop contest.
Righto. Why don’t they get on with it?
This has not been a particularly well-executed leadership coup, which may or may not be because Dutton has the tactical genius of a pumpkin.
Turnbull threw down the gauntlet at a press conference yesterday: he will call a leadership spill if Dutton can produce a petition which is signed by at least half of all Liberal MPs. With names. That’s 43 signatures. The word on the street is that the Dutton camp is struggling to achieve that, mostly because there are cowards who don’t want to put their name to it.
Turnbull also wants there to be clarity around whether Dutton is even allowed to be in Parliament. This is a weird one: he may be in contravention of the Constitution because he and his wife own a few daycare centres which may be receiving Commonwealth money – which is a no-no. Dutton reckons he’s in the clear on this, Labor is convinced he’s not. If he became Prime Minister and then had to instantly leave Parliament, that would not be good for the Liberals, even if it would be hilarious for the country.
Ultimately these are arbitrary standards set by Turnbull. A spill could be called at any time if he was forced to do it.
Don’t these people have a country to be running?
Yes they do! Greens leader Richard di Natale pointed this out in a fiery Senate speech last night. It’s worth remembering that once you get over the exciting political intrigue, this whole debacle is mostly because a bunch of rich old assholes are afraid they’ll lose their high six-figure incomes if they go to an election with Turnbull and lose.
They definitely do not give a shit about you, or anyone! That is something you should remain aware of.
Will this affect the polls?
Maybe. Maybe not. All indications point to the fact that – despite the insane nonsense you will hear on Sky News and conservative radio – Turnbull is still the preferred Liberal leader by more or less any metric you’d care to name. (Except with over 65s, according to ReachTel. They narrowly prefer Dutton. But they won’t be here for much longer.)
The two favourites, Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton, are the most disliked out of the bunch. So we’re essentially glued to our phones and televisions watching a race between two people nobody likes to become the leader of our country because of a bunch of rich guy bullshit. Love it! Love it!
Oh, and it bears mentioning that these two men are both principally responsible for the abject horror in our detention centres. They’re both the ones who have fought tooth and nail to keep asylum seekers out of Australia, and to do the absolute bare minimum to provide services and essential healthcare to them. In a just world they’d be in a dungeon for life, but as it stands they’re gunning for the country’s top job.
This is all very depressing. When is it going to happen?
Noon, probably. Turnbull’s goose looks well-cooked at this point. Guess we’ll see then!
