Speculation has been growing about the possibility of a pre-election leadership spill within the Coalition to boot either Prime Minister Scott Morrison or Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce — or both — after a bunch of leaked texts derailed the first sitting week of Parliament.
#Libspill has been trending on Twitter since the first Newspoll of the year revealed both Morrison and the Coaltion were way behind in popularity, less than four months out from an expected federal election (the actual date hasn’t been set yet).
It only takes a thousand or so tweets in Australia to be “trending”, so its listing doesn’t mean anything’s happening, but people are definitely talking about it.
With more leaked texts and more accusations around who said what and who leaked what flying, online commentary has been focussed on potential leadership changes within the National and Liberal Parties.
Aside from the obvious fact that they’re both fucking losers, there are a few real reasons why people think a spill could be imminent.
Let’s break them down.
The Federal Government loves a leadership spill
Our political parties have gotten into a nasty habit of nipping leaders in the bud lately, rather than running the risk of letting voters decide at the polls. Democracy shmamocracy.
There have been plenty of leadership spills in Australia’s colonial history, at both state and federal levels, but honestly the number of spills within the sitting government — whether that’s Labor or the Coalition — in the last decade has been ridiculous. John Howard was literally the last PM to serve a full term.
First Kevin Rudd was voted off Labor Island and replaced by Her Majesty Julia Gillard prior to the 2010 federal election. Facing an election against Tony Abbott in 2013, Labor pulled the ol’ switcharoo and she was suddenly knifed by Rudd. But Labor lost. Then Abbott was defeated in another spill by Malcom Turnbull in 2015, who was then backstabbed by Morrison in 2018. It’s all a bit like a game of Cluedo.
The point is: history repeats.
The Coalition is tanking in the polls
In the two-party preferred Newspoll released on Jan 31, Labor had a whopping lead over the Coalition at 56 to 44 per cent.
The last time Labor had a 56 to 44 lead was during the leadership spill of August 2018 when Turnbull was booted and Morrison beat Julie Bishop and Peter Dutton for the job.
Again, history, yada yadda.
Leaked texts to leadership spill?
First yikes: Gladys Berejiklian and another unnamed Liberal MP allegedly referred to Morrison a “horrible, horrible person” and “a complete psycho” in a text message exchange leaked on Tuesday.
We haven’t found out who was kiki-ing with Gladys one week on, but the fact they were leaked at all suggests dissatisfaction within the party with Morrison.
Since the texts were leaked to Network Ten journo Peter Van Onselen with the unidentified minister’s permission, it may have been a deliberate political assassination attempt.
Basically it would seem this Liberal minister intentionally tried to damage Morrison’s reputation and kicked him while he was down in the polls.
It could’ve been someone who simply wanted to see him gone or, going one step further, someone who had their own plan to replace him.
One of the two potential culprit to be identified so far is Dutton, who has contested the Liberal party leadership twice.
Former NSW Premier Bob Carr tweeted on Sunday Dutton was the snake, which he denied.
Anyone have Bob Carr forcing a #libspill on their bingo card?
If it’s true, and Peter Dutton is the one who described Scott Morrison as a psycho, then this sitting week is leadership game on!#auspol #auspoll https://t.co/njKVE8FQdM
— Lisa Wilkinson (@Lisa_Wilkinson) February 6, 2022
The other who’s been named was Foreign Minister Marise Payne, who also denied it.
Second yikes: It was revealed at the weekend Joyce called his boss a “liar” and a “hypocrite” in other leaked texts to Brittany Higgins through a third party staffer, since he didn’t have her number.
But he unreservedly apologised for the comments and stood by Morrison. Unsurprisingly, people then questioned what this actually meant and whether we should trust Morrison, or Joyce for that matter.
The Nationals have called a party room meeting to discuss Joyce’s texts
Nationals politicians have been playing down the prospect of breaking up with leader Barnaby Joyce eight months after he was brought back to replace Michael McCormack in the Nationals leadership spill of June 2021.
But they haven’t ruled it out.
According to the ABC, Nationals MPs have been pissed Parliament’s first sitting week of the year has been clouded by all this drama.
But Deputy Leader of the Nationals David Littleproud said although the party room meeting was called to address Joyce’s leaked texts, it’s too close to the election to swap leaders so everyone please calm down.
“We will have a conversation with Barnaby. He’s very candid. So too are our party room meetings.” Mr Littleproud said.
“That’s the one thing… we sort it out in our party room.
“We have our blues, then we sort it out, get on with it.”
Nevertheless, politicians and former politicians have called for resignations left, right and centre, while journos and commentators reckon it could actually happen any minute.
Former Nationals leader McCormack called for Joyce’s resignation — no surprises — and said he would not rule out running as leader if Mr Joyce were to resign.
Justin Langer’s was not the resignation that should have taken place today. He has been a mighty contributor for Australian cricket and should be proud of all he has helped the team accomplish. The nation salutes you JL – a good innings, well played!
— Michael McCormack (@M_McCormackMP) February 5, 2022
People are also guessing who would put their hand up to replace Morrison, with Josh Frydenberg and Dutton popular picks.
Battle of the potato heads #libspill pic.twitter.com/epX9pN3PWz
— JayJay (@JayJay91341991) February 7, 2022
Murdoch’s first warning via the odious Andrew Bolt in support of a coup by his far right mate Dutton. Murdoch is utterly unsentimental about which Tory he has in power, so long as it’s HIS Tory—a desperate effort to keep them in office & protect his interests. #libspill pic.twitter.com/kQeiDZcXLv
— Kevin Rudd (@MrKRudd) February 7, 2022
When Frydenberg was questioned on Sky News on Monday about whether he would contest the leadership if the opportunity arose, he didn’t outright say that he wouldn’t.
Sky was careful to ask Frydenberg about challenging for the leadership before the election (knowing that it won’t happen until after).
“Albanese’s trying to sneak into government .. he’s strutting around the place like he’s already in government”
Which one is it, Josh?#auspol pic.twitter.com/ZyJIu8iBp4
— Squizz (@SquizzSTK) February 6, 2022
Michael Rowland: Do you have full confidence in Scott Morrison?
Josh Frydenberg: *long pause*..I do
Rowland: If the leadership came up would you contest it?
Frydenberg: *nervous laugh*…#auspol #libspill
— Piers Mitchem (@piersmitchem) February 6, 2022
We really hope this is the end of the story and we simply get to vote the Coalition out this year, but hey, we wait with bated breath.
