The Coalition government has, once again, reaffirmed its commitment to a plebiscite on the issue of gay marriage. It’s a move utterly maligned by everyone whose name doesn’t rhyme with Bony Crabbott and the lingering sympathisers of Mr Crabbott’s politics, but more importantly, it’s a commitment that seems doomed to fail.

When the issue hits the Senate floor, it’s very likely to be met with the same opposition it did back in November last year, minus The Greens‘ two ousted senators. That means the government will likely push ahead with its weaselly fall-back plan of a non-binding and insanely expensive postal vote.

Again, that’s not a great situation for anybody who just wants parliament to conduct a simple conscience vote on the issue, but Malcolm Turnbull’s government is anything but willing to just do what they know the majority of the Australian public wants.

Before that postal brouhaha comes to pass, here’s who you can reasonably expect to vote down the plebiscite in the Senate:

Labor

After coming this far by opposing the plebiscite, it’s incredibly unlikely a single member of the opposition party will choose to vote in favour of a move they categorically binned last time around. That’s 26 votes.

The Greens

Ah, yes, the Greens. Even without Larissa Waters and Scott Ludlam, they still command seven votes.

Nick Xenophon Team

While the South Australian senator’s squad has been known to side with the Coalition on the number of issues, it definitely appears Nick Xenophon and co. will maintain their opposition on this one. That’s three votes.

Derryn Hinch

The independent wildcard is still against this one, and remains one of the most vocal opponents of a plebiscite – or any other decision-making tool other than a simple parliamentary conscience vote. That’s another vote.

Liberal Party

YEP. WA senator Dean Smith, who was one of the seven Liberal Party players whose push for a conscience vote spurred yesterday’s emergency meeting on the issue, abstained from voting last time around. If that trend holds, it’s really as good as a vote against the move.

The remaining Liberals and Nationals, their lackeys at Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, Jacqui Lambie, Liberal Democrat David Lleyonhjelm, far-right agitator Cory Bernardi and newcomer Lucy Gichuhi are pegged to vote for it. Still, that tallies up to 36, compared to 38 against.

If we can put this tally together, you can bloody well bet the Coalition can. For all intents and purposes, it appears they’re deliberately trying to sink their gutless campaign, so they can defer to the even dumber postal plebiscite.

Good job, guys.

Source: ABC
Image: Stefan Postles / Getty Images