The Christmas Day Weather 2023 Forecast Is In And El Niño Is On The Naughty List


Everyone plans for Christmas at different times. Some eager-beavers start on as soon as Halloween ends, and other daredevils smash everything out in one big shop on December 23rd.

Whichever type you may be (hopefully the former), everyone wants to know what the Christmas Day 2023 weather will be some time in advance. So we’ve put together a cheeky little list — and OFC we’re checking it twice! — of the most acc-ur-ate weather predictions we can find for December 25!

As Australia heads into its first El Niño event since 2016, things across the entire summer are looking hot hot HOT! However, with El Niño can come a massive shift in extremes. So are we looking at a Christmas Day where the only thing on your wish-list is a kiddy pool, an umbrella, or both???

To help us, we’ve collected some long-range predictions from a variety of reliable and trustworthy sources including AccuWeather and The Bureau Of Meteorology. Plus I checked with my Tarot cards and ChatGPT for good measure, and though they weren’t as helpful, if these forecasts are wrong I absolutely blame AI.

Alright, let’s crack into it. Here are the Christmas Day weather forecasts for each capital city:

Christmas Day Weather 2023 For Aussie Cities

Sydney, New South Wales

Sydney will be warm but quite humid, with lots of cloud cover, a high chance of showers and the potential for thunderstorms. If you squint at the clouds and rain hard enough, you can convince yourself you’re having a white Christmas!

  • Temperature: 19-26°C
  • Weather: Cloudy, with rain and a chance of thunderstorms

Ah, El Niño. We weren’t kidding when we said the weather would be oscillating between extremes. First these dreaded heatwaves, and now heaps of rain. Sigh.

Melbourne, Victoria

If Melbourne is where you will be spending your holidays, then you’ll be having a cool and possibly slightly wet Christmas.

  • Temperature: 15-21°C
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, slight chance of rain

Chance of rain is at 30%, so hopefully you get a sunny morning in, at the very least. And with a high of only 23°C the chances of you getting pit-sweat stains on any brand new tops is also happily low.

Adelaide, South Australia

For Christmas the lovely people of Adelaide are being rewarded by Santa for all the mean things everyone else says about them the rest of the year, with the best Christmas weather IMO.

  • Temperature: 13-24°C
  • Weather: Partly cloudy

A high of 24°C during the day with partial sunshine = perfect weather. Great for a cold drink at lunch, and hot enough for a BBQ, but not so hot nobody wants to cook at it. Plus, no rain or crazy storms! And best of all, partial sunshine means nobody is squinting in photos. Gorg!

Perth, Western Australia

The people of Perth will have the prime weather for doing what Tim Minchin has led me to believe all good citizens of the city do on Christmas, and that is drink White Wine In The Sun. A high of 32°C means it’s a good time to get on down to Cottesloe Beach for some festive fish and chippies.

  • Temperature: 21-32°C
  • Weather: Sunny and hot

If you do go to the beach, make sure you slap on heaps of sunscreen because the UV Index is going to be “very unhealthy” at 12. No need to serve yourself up as the Christmas roast!

Hobart, Tasmania

Australia may not have snow, but in Tasmania’s capital (where it’s secretly the best part of the country, they just tricked everyone into thinking otherwise) folks can expect a rainy and cloudy cosy-core indoor Christmas.

  • Temperature: 11-18°C
  • Weather: Rainy and cloudy

Reaching a high of 18°C and a low of 11°C, Hobart is the perfect place this year to pretend you’re spending Christmas on another hemisphere. It’ll be a little chilly but hey, a cosy Christmas with hot choccies and all manner of cinnamon-flavoured things sounds great to me.


Darwin, Northern Territory

If Hobart wins the award for coldest Christmas this year, then Darwin easily takes the (fruit) cake for the hottest. People of Darwin, I hope your stockings are lined with whatever they use to keep cooler bags cold.

  • Temperature: 28-35°C
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, rainy, chance of thunderstorms

With a top of 35°C, and a low that is still hotter than most states’ highest temps, a 50% chance of rain AND the chance of a thunderstorm, Darwin shows what a real El Niño Xmas looks like. Yikes!

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory

Much like the politicians who work there, Canberra’s forecasted weather for Christmas is extremely flip-floppy. Sometimes it’s hot, sometimes it’s cold, sometimes it needs more detail, sometimes there’s too much detail. Make up your mind Canberra, aaah!

  • Temperature: 11-24°C
  • Weather: Intervals of sunshine and clouds, rain

Reaching a high of 24°C during the day, and plummeting to a low of 11°C in the evening, Canberra will also be rainy but actually feel like 28°C, according to AccuWeather. I wish I could advise what to wear for this range in temperature, however advisory boards are apparently a big no-no in Canberra.

Brisbane, Queensland

And finally, Bris-Vegas will be hot, humid and rainy on Christmas Day, following Cyclone Jasper and the flooding the north of the state has experienced.

  • Temperature: 22-32°C
  • Weather: Cloudy, rainy, chance of a thunderstorm.

It’s going to be a scorcher, but without the pleasant sunshine. RIP.

If you won’t be in a capital city but still want to know the weather forecast for Christmas Day, don’t worry, we’ve got you.

Christmas Day Weather 2023 For Regional Cities

Sunshine Coast21-31°CPartly cloudy, high chance of showers, chance of a thunderstorm
Gold Coast21-32°CPartly cloudy, high chance of showers, chance of a thunderstorm
Wollongong19-23°CCloudy, a high chance of showers at 70%
Newcastle12-27°CPartly cloudy, high chance of showers at 70%
Ballarat7-18°CCloudy, rainy in the afternoon
Geelong12-18°CCloudy, chance of showers
Townsville25-32°CCloudy, humid
Cairns24-32°CCloudy, humid, thunderstorms
Coffs Harbour18-27°CCloudy, humid, rain and chance of thunderstorms