Exit polls in Australian elections can be a bit of a crapshoot, and it’s not uncommon to see final results which vary wildly from what election day polling lays out. But Labor fans will almost certainly take a bit of joy from the YouGov Galaxy exit poll – taken by Nine – which suggests a solid win for the party on the back of swings in Victoria and NSW.
The poll, of more than 3300 people in 33 booths across the country, pegs Labor ahead 52-48 on a two-party-preferred basis. This is roughly in line with recent polling, so it’s not out of the question that this is will be how the chips lie in the end.
Though the vote hasn’t really budged in Queensland, a big swing has taken place in Victoria, where the Coalition is at risk of losing up to six seats. The exit poll reckons the two-party-preferred breakdown is 55-45 there, which is a pretty huge loss for the Coalition.
In NSW, the poll predicts a 2.5 percent swing to Labor – a little nudge which could be quite consequential for Labor in the state.
Assuming the swing is uniform (which is absolutely not guaranteed) this would suggest Labor might just romp it home.
Because of the plethora of smaller right-wing parties contending the election, there have been a higher-than-usual flow of preferences to the Coalition, but there has also been a high proportion of Greens votes going to Labor. So we’ll see how that plays out!
Keep tune to PEDESTRIAN.TV tonight as I continue to sink tinnies at a very sensible rate and bring you the news of the 2019 federal election. If you start seeing typos, please let me know.